How Louisiana’s Supreme Court Case Just Opened the Door to Major Blue Waves

The Supreme Court ruling this week gutting the Voting Rights Act won't have immediate impacts on the November elections for most states. Louisiana is going to have to deal with the instant fallout, but other states who have recently redistricted appear to be in the clear to move forward with their maps.

But in the future, those other states might have to change their maps again. Maybe by a court ruling against them, or maybe because there's going to be an unintended consequence to the Supreme Court's Louisiana ruling.

Supreme Court Opens Door To Eliminate One Party In Some States

This Supreme Court ruling eliminates a court initiated Congressional district that was built to be a 'minority, majority" district. These districts were built over the last 6 decades to address racial disparities in states as part of the Voting Rights Act. The districts were a way to defeat the Jim Crow Laws that plagued much of the country at that time.

Now, the Supreme Court has taken the racial aspect of redistricting out...but has left other ways to manipulate maps available in states.

Like partisan behavior. The Supreme Court has cleared the path for state's to redistrict to be all "blue" or all "red", without having to worry if race would impact the new lines.

How "All Blue" States Can Sweep The Nation

This is actually a dangerous game of chicken that has been unleashed by Louisiana's challenge of the Voting Rights Act, and eventual win. Because in many states, the guardrails of the Voting Rights Act were the framework for their more moderate congressional maps. But when you take those guardrails off...things are going to happen.

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California recently passed a ballot measure to allow the state to redistrict immediately to make a majority 'blue' map. With all but 3 of their 52 districts leaning 'blue'. That change has been allowed to roll forward by the court.

But now that California doesn't have to be concerned about any guardrails from the Voting Rights Act, the door is wide open for them to make all 52 districts "blue"...a clean sweep.

California has the most congressional seats in the US, with the next highest being Texas with 38.

You have to imagine that Texas would attempt to do the opposite of California, and make their map all 'red'. Then continue down the line. States like New York and Illinois could easily carve themselves up to be all 'blue', while Georgia and Tennessee could likely carve up to be all 'red'.

But the size of states decides how many congressional districts you have, and the states with bigger populations (who have more districts) often come with large metro areas...and those large metros are generally more 'blue' leaning. So even a state like Florida could try to carve their way into going all 'red', but there might not be enough ways to cut up cities like Miami and Orlando into the more rural parts of the state to be all 'red'. There just aren't as many people in the rural portions of the state as their are in the metro areas...and with a limited number of districts, the math isn't going to work out.

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The 'blue' states don't have that issue. Because they can cut up those metro areas to overwhelm the rural, less populated, parts of a state.

What This Means For The Shape Of Congress In The Future

It shouldn't be a shock to anyone that states who have less than 40% of their population who identify as Republican are larger states...population and not land size.

States like California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Washington can easily redistrict to make states that would be all 'blue'. Congressional districts among those states total 100 seats. There are other states who could do the same, like Minnesota and Massachusetts, but their Congressional seat totals are smaller.

There are states that are traditionally considered safe 'red' states, like Texas, Tennessee, and Indiana...but they might not be able to sweep all 'red' the same way other states can go all 'blue'. Because in a state like Texas, over 80% of their population lives in metro areas. Even looking at the new redistricted map in Texas, there are still 8 'blue' districts. Even if the state wrapped all of the metro areas into one big blue district, and sliced their other 37 seats into 'red' districts, it still wouldn't be a sweep. The same math blankets states like Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, and Alabama. There aren't enough people in 'red' districts to outweigh the 'blue' concentrated areas. Meaning all of those states would have to have a least one 'blue' district...even if they consolidate all of the 'blue' vote into a single district and cut up the rest.

The states that can sweep all 'red' in their districts are states like Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia, and South Dakota. But all of those states except West Virginia only have 1 Congressional seat...West Virginia has 2. In fact, the bottom 25 states combined have a total of 76 Congressional seats...and not all of them are safely 'red' states. Illinois, New York, and California alone outnumber the Congressional seats of the bottom 25 states, 95 to 76.

The states California, New York, and Washington can use their metro populations to overwhelm the rural 'red' areas. Even in Illinois, a city like Chicago has a metro population of 9.4 million people...and is safely 'blue'. The rest of the state has 3.3 million people. Just slicing the Chicago up, you could find one deep 'blue' slice that outnumbers the entire population of the rest of the state, put them together into a congressional district, and have the Chicago voters overwhelm literally every one else. Then you take their other 16 seats, and just spilt the rest of the Chicago metro into tiny, deep 'blue', districts.

Supreme Court Greenlights Blue State Waves

If states like California, Washington, Oregon, Vermont, New Jersey, Minnesota, New York, Illinois, and Massachusetts take the opportunity to go all 'blue', it will create an instant disadvantage for anyone else. There aren't enough districts in 'red' states to compete...the math is just the math.

Without a new law being created to formalize districts across the country, eliminating gerrymandering, this is the most likely path the country is staring down. Mathematically, with the parts of the algebra story-problems we have, it would be impossible to avoid a 'blue' mountain being built across the country. One that would be nearly impossible to rectify without new political parties emerging, or a new law being put in place to formalize the districts, without human influence.